Peace & Power Ukraine

Ep. 50 - Ukraine’s Drone Expertise, Putin’s Iran Intel, Russia-China Tensions & Heritage Insights w/Steve Yates

Episode Notes

Gary Marx welcomes Steve Yates, Senior Research Fellow for China and National Security at the Heritage Foundation, former White House Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs, ex-President of Radio Free Asia, and host of the China Desk Podcast on Federal Newswire. 

Amid Iran conflict fallout, they discuss Ukraine’s global military relevance: Ukrainian know-how now aiding Middle East allies against Iranian drone/missile swarms. They explore how U.S. awareness of Putin supplying Iran with intelligence (targeting American/allied interests) could reshape Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 

The conversation pivots to Russia-China dynamics: historical rivalries, ethnic/civilizational differences, long border anxieties, resource competition in Russia’s Far East, Chinese labor migration tensions, and the fragile “no-limits” partnership (mafia-like self-interest over true alliance). Steve shares China Desk’s origin (Xi-era policy shifts, Federal Newswire launch), growth to nearly 100 episodes, and his path into China studies (accidental language pivot from Spanish to Chinese, NSA entry). 

He outlines his advisory role at Heritage: advancing conservative policies for human flourishing, Asian Studies focus, and media commentary on national security. Essential for grasping Ukraine’s strategic edge, authoritarian alliances’ limits, and interconnected global threats. 

Subscribe on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify. Visit federalnewswire.com for archives. Follow @TheChinaDesk on X.

• 00:00:11 - Welcome to Peace and Power Ukraine
• 00:00:33 - Ukraine's Global Military Relevance Amid Iran Conflict
• 00:01:00 - Ukrainian Expertise vs. Iranian Drone/Missile Swarms
• 00:01:26 - Putin Supplying Intel to Iran: Impact on Russia-Ukraine Talks?
• 00:01:51 - Guest Intro: Steve Yates – Heritage, White House, China Desk
• 00:02:15 - Origin Story of China Desk Podcast
• 00:03:05 - New China Approach Under Xi & Policy Rethinking
• 00:03:49 - Podcast Growth & Federal Newswire Collaboration
• 00:04:04 - Where to Find China Desk Podcast
• 00:04:58 - Steve's Path to China Focus: From Spanish to Chinese
• 00:06:07 - Survival, Love & Language Mastery in Taiwan
• 00:07:10 - Entering Intelligence Community via NSA
• 00:08:03 - Big Picture: China-Russia Ties & Ukraine War
• 00:08:32 - Historical Echoes: Sino-Soviet Split & Geopolitics
• 00:09:00 - China's Role: Sanctions Evasion, Material Aid, UN Blocking
• 00:09:32 - Putin & Xi as Unique Leaders: Risks & Intelligence Gaps
• 00:10:14 - Viewing Regimes as Mafia Enterprises Over Nations
• 00:10:35 - China's Enabling of Russia's Ukraine Devastation
• 00:11:04 - Chinese Components in Russian/Iranian Weapons
• 00:11:56 - Supply Chains: Auto Analogy for Missiles/Drones
• 00:12:33 - Ukraine's Drone/Anti-Drone Stand & Tech Lessons
• 00:13:13 - Assessing Tech in Ukraine vs. Iran Conflicts
• 00:13:53 - Iran Conflict: Rational Lessons for Russia/China
• 00:14:42 - Puncturing BRICS/Decline Narratives
• 00:15:12 - Caveat: Rationality Gaps in Moscow/Beijing
• 00:15:33 - Axis of Aggression Weakening: Venezuela, Iran, Cuba Out
• 00:16:47 - Russia/China Isolation: Just Them + North Korea?
• 00:17:30 - India/Middle East Neighbors Rethinking Alliances
• 00:18:06 - Ukraine's View: Russia as Weak Partner for China
• 00:18:42 - China's Calculus: Bilateral World vs. West
• 00:19:01 - Chinese Views: No Gain in Distancing from Russia
• 00:19:55 - Post-Conflict: Don't Let China Profit from Reconstruction
• 00:20:59 - Axis Failures: No Aid to Syria/Venezuela/Iran
• 00:21:25 - Impact on Potential Partners' Trust
• 00:22:09 - Positive Shift: Abraham Accords, India Betting on West
• 00:22:51 - U.S. Energy Dominance & Sanctions Leverage
• 00:23:18 - Choke Points: U.S. Card Over China
• 00:23:42 - Rational China Cooling Jets on Regional Fights
• 00:24:03 - Russia/China History: Communist Splits & Marriages of Convenience
• 00:24:42 - Civilizational Distrust: Ethnic, Border, Resource Tensions
• 00:25:20 - Eurasian Divide: Russia European, China Asian
• 00:25:40 - Far East Labor Migration & Exploitation Concerns
• 00:26:04 - Historical Rivalries & Junior Partner Dynamics
• 00:26:47 - Steve at Heritage: Advisory Role & Policy Advocacy
• 00:27:47 - Heritage Focus: Conservative Human Flourishing
• 00:28:20 - Asian Studies, Media Commentary & National Security
• 00:28:44 - Where to Find Steve: heritage.org & @SteveYates on X
• 00:29:25 - One Key Takeaway: Cross-Fertilization of Themes
• 00:29:53 - Closing: Like, Subscribe, Share & Support Federal Newswire